According to sources, escalation leads to higher rates for both Russian and Ukrainian port calls.
The cost of transporting commodities via the Black Sea rose on Monday after Ukrainian military drones struck two tankers bound for a Russian port, with worries of more assaults driving up war risk insurance prices, industry sources said.
The Black Sea is critical for the transportation of grain, oil, and petroleum goods. Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, and Turkey share its seas, as do Russia and Ukraine.
War risk premiums for a normal seven-day trip period, which are calculated by individual underwriters based on the ship’s worth, increased to 0.5% for visits to Ukrainian ports from 0.4% a week ago, according to shipping and insurance sources.
War risk insurance for Russian Black Sea ports, which is generally higher, was quoted at 0.65-0.8%, up from approximately 0.6% last week, according to sources.
Tankers assaulted.
The two tankers, which were subject to Western sanctions, were hit by navy drones while empty and on their way to Novorossiysk, a key Russian Black Sea oil terminal, according to a Ukrainian Security Service official.
According to Munro Anderson, head of operations at maritime war risk and insurance expert Vessel Protect, part of Pen Underwriting, the Black Sea occurrences allude to a campaign by Ukraine to restrict Russian oil revenue, which is “shaping underwriters’ assessment of intent and capability”.
“Rates have firmed in accordance with that view. Underwriters are pricing Russian port calls based on a greater range of possible strike sites and a higher risk of repeat,” he said.
“As Ukrainian engagement increases, the likelihood of reciprocal Russian action increases. This results in a more level risk gradient across both trades than we have seen in some time.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea were unacceptable and issued a warning to “all related sides”.
According to Andrii Ryzhenko, a naval analyst and former deputy chief of staff of the Ukrainian navy, the recent Black Sea episodes were the first strikes on non-military, non-Russian registered vessels in international seas.
Ryzhenko stated that Russia was unlikely to respond against commercial shipping bound for Ukraine while it was in the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania, as this would constitute an attack on NATO territory.
“They’re (Russia) attacking (vessels) all of the time, at least in Ukrainian territorial waters and using different types of weapons.”
Mysterious blasts.
Since December 2024, at least seven blasts have occurred on separate tankers calling at Russian ports, notably in the Mediterranean, with Ukraine suspected of carrying them out, according to maritime security sources.