In his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump has used tariffs in previous battles.
Thailand has defied US economic pressure to enforce peace with Cambodia, as border fighting resumed this week, shattering the Trump-backed ceasefire from July. At the time, a call from then-US President Donald Trump and the threat of “crushing tariffs” helped put an end to five days of furious warfare.
“Bangkok’s resistance is a test for Trump’s tariff play, but the tariff has always been a blunt instrument,” said Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore. “Whether it can get a lasting ceasefire over longstanding and deep-seated animosities has been and is doubtful.”
Trump, in his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, has attempted to settle various issues in recent months using tariffs as leverage, with mixed outcomes and alienating some countries. Earlier this year, his attempt to quell conflict between India and Pakistan, apparently using exorbitant tariffs, damaged relations between New Delhi and Washington. However, India claims that tariffs played any part in reducing tensions.
At a rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Trump said he plans to make a phone call on Wednesday to end the violence between Thailand and Cambodia, but did not elaborate.
Thailand’s Foreign Minister, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, emphasised that settling the border problem should be separate from ongoing trade negotiations. In October, the United States and Thailand announced a reciprocal trade framework that retains a 19% tax on Thai goods while recognising possible tariff decreases. “We feel that it’s unjust already that we should be subject to a unilateral tariff of 19%, and perhaps they want to impose even more tariffs if they’re not happy,” Sihasak told reporters on Tuesday.
For more than a century, Thailand and Cambodia have disputed parts of their 817-kilometer (508-mile) land border. Efforts to resolve conflicting claims have made little headway, resulting in frequent military flare-ups.
The latest confrontations occur as Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who assumed power in September after his predecessor was removed over the border problem, prepares to dissolve parliament next month and hold quick elections in March. Anutin has already received criticism for his government’s poor response to fatal floods in the south last month, which threatened to derail his Bhumjaithai party’s goals.
“It puts Bhumjaithai in this position of angling to prove its leadership mettle during its brief tenure in office, which is clearly to try to win votes in the upcoming election,” said Laura Schwartz, senior analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
While greater tariffs remain a concern, Anutin and his party may try to capitalise on nationalist feeling by taking a stronger position on trade and distancing it from the border dispute. When Anutin signed the ceasefire agreement arranged by Trump and Malaysia, he received harsh criticism from some of the more patriotic groups, according to Voranai Vanijaka, a lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University. “So he’s going to keep Trump away for now,” he joked.
A countrywide poll conducted in August found that Thais overwhelmingly trust the military—which has been the most outspoken in its response to Cambodia—over the political leadership.
“Thailand may face an immediate tariff blowback, but it is betting on its military superiority and the limited nature of the conflict,” according to Chong. “It probably believes that it can prevail and the Trump administration will live with that result.”